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Two longtime AFC West rivals face off with little on the line on Sunday when the Las Vegas Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs in an NFL Week 18 matchup. The Raiders (2-14) are the favorites to win the top pick in the NFL Draft as they haven't won since Week 6. A 34-10 loss to the nearly as inept Giants last week was their 10th in a row. The Chiefs were eliminated from the playoffs in Week 15, and star quarterback Patrick Mahomes was lost with a torn ACL in that loss to the Chargers. The Raiders have won just three meetings between the teams since 2013, and Kansas City has won nine of the past 10 matchups.    

Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium is set for 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+. The Chiefs are 4.5-point road favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Raiders odds at DraftKings, and the over/under for total points scored is 36.5. Before you lock in your Raiders vs. Chiefs picks, you have to check out the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. 

Where to watch Chiefs vs. Raiders on Sunday

When: Sunday, Jan. 4
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Chiefs vs. Raiders betting preview

Odds: Chiefs -4.5, over/under 36.5

Both teams are 6-10 against the spread this season, but the Raiders have failed to cover in five of their past seven, including twice as double-digit underdogs. Kansas City is 1-7 SU and ATS in its past eight games, losing outright six times as a favorite and covering last week as a 13.5-point underdog against the Broncos. The Chiefs have failed to cover in their past five road games, but Las Vegas has lost its past five outright at Allegiant Stadium.

Chiefs vs. Raiders SGP

  • Raiders +4.5
  • Under 36.5
  • Chris Oladokun Under 26.5 pass attempts

Bet it at DraftKings:

Model's Chiefs vs. Raiders score prediction, picks

The model is giving a 'B' grade on the Raiders to win outright as +215 underdogs. They are winning in 39% of simulations and covering the spread 54% of the time. The Under is also hitting at a high rate, with 58% of simulations going Under and the projected total at 34 points. Chiefs games have gone Under the total in 10 of the past 11 games, and the Raiders have scored more than 17 points once during their 10-game skid. They have been shut out twice over that span, with one of those a 31-0 loss in Kansas City in Week 7. The SportsLine model rates Oladokun Under 26.5 pass attempts as a 4.5-star pick.

Chiefs vs. Raiders score prediction: Chiefs 19, Raiders 15

Want more Week 18 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 18 NFL game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.